u Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda na Tanzania ninde uzatanga undi kugera muri ‘Middle Income’? – Dr Wolfgang
Dr. Wolfgang Fengler ni impuguke mu bukungu, amaze imyaka 12 akorera Banki y’Isi. Aracyari umukozi wa Banki y’Isi ushinzwe gukurikirana ubukungu mu bihugu by’u Rwanda, Kenya, Eritrea, na Somalia agakorera Nairobi. Mu nyandiko yasohoye kuri uyu wa gatatu, yanditse ko Kenya ari kimwe mu bihugu biyoboye ibindi muri aka karere mu kugana ku kiciro cy’ibihugu mu bukungu bita “Middle Income Countries” nubwo ngo itazamutse yacibwaho n’u Rwanda.
Umuvuduko w’ibi bihugu ngo umeze nk’isiganwa, yemeza ko Kenya itagize inzitizi mu bukungu mu 2020 yaba ariyo ya mbere yinjira muri kiriya kiciro, ariko ko igize inzitizi yanyurwaho n’u Rwanda nka kimwe mu bihugu bifite umuvuduko ushimishije mu kuzamura ubukungu bwacyo.
Kenya ubu, ikomeje kuza imbere nk’igihugu gikize muri East Africa, ikigereranyo cy’ubutunzi bwinjizwa n’umuturage wa Kenya ku mwaka ni hafi amadorari 800 US$, kugirango winjire mu kiciro cya ‘Middle Income’ nuko nibura igihugu kiba kigeze ku madorari 1000 USS$ yinjizwa n’umuturage ku mwaka.
(Middle-income countries (MICs) ubu ni ibihugu 86 ku Isi, bishyirwa muri iki kiciro na Banki y’Isi ihereye ku bipimo by’amajyambere ku Isi (World Development Indicators). Mu myaka y’1990 nibwo ibihugu 10 birimo Ubushinwa na Misiri byiyongereye muri iki kiciro)
Inyuma ya Kenya iri hafi ku madorari 800US$ yinjizwa n’umuturage ku mwaka, u Rwanda, Uganda na Tanzania biri inyuma gato kandi ku muvuduko mwiza.
Nyamara ariko, ubukungu bwa Kenya bwazamutseho 3.7% (ikigereranyo mu myaka 10 ishize) bikomeje gutya, u Rwanda ngo rwanyura kuri Kenya mu myaka 10 iri imbere. Kenya ikomeje kuriya ikaba yagera muri ‘Middle Income countries’ mu 2037.
Ubu u Rwanda, Uganda na Kenya biri hafi y’amadorari byibura 550US$ yinjizwa n’umuturage ku mwaka, munsi ya Kenya kugeza ubu. Kuzamuka k’ubukungu muri ibi bihugu gukomeje ku rwego biriho ubu, mu 2020 Kenya yaba ikiri imbere ariko itandukaniro ari rito cyane, mu 2022 ariko u Rwanda rudakora ku nyanja ngo rwaba rwafashe umwanya wa mbere rugakurikirwa na Uganda.
Iyi tableau irerekana uko ibi bihugu byazamutse n’aho bishobora kuba bihagaze mu myaka iza
Kwinjira mu kiciro cya ‘Middle Income’ kuri ibi bihugu ngo biragaragara ko bizagerwaho mu myaka nk’icumi iri imbere, bikazafasha cyane mu mibereho y’abatuye ibi bihugu nkuko byemezwa na Dr Wolfgang Fengler.
Uyu munsi, ibihugu bya EAC ni bimwe mu bihugu biza imbere mu kwihuta cyane mu bukungu ku Isi. Niba u Rwanda, Uganda na Tanzania bigumye ku muvuduko biriho na Kenya ikijajara ikazamuka, ibi bihugu uko ari bine bizinjira mu kiciro cya ‘Middle Income’ mu myaka 10 nta kabuza.
Ku nshuro ya mbere nyuma y’ubwingenge bw’ibi bihugu, amajyambere arambye noneho ngo aratanga ikizere muri Africa y’Uburasirazuba, ndetse no mu bihugu byahuye n’ibibazo bikomeye nk’u Rwanda.
Dr Wolfgang Fengler muri iyi nyandiko ye ati: “ Mu cyumweru gishize nari mu Rwanda, igihugu koko gifite ibyo cyagezeho nkuko na Prof Collier yabitangaje, ibya rwakoze nta gihugu cya Africa cyabibashije mu myaka ishize, kugabanya ubukene ku buryo bugaragara no kugerageza guhangana n’ubusumbane birahagaragara”
Gusa ariko, kwinjira muri ‘Middle Income’ si impera y’urugendo. Intambamyi mu bukungu zirakomeza, ndetse no kurwanya ubukene. Kwinjiza amadorari 1 000US$ ku mwaka bivuze ko umuturage yaba ageza ku madorari 83US$ ni ukuvuga yinjiza byibura amadorari 3US$$ ku munsi. Kwinjira mu kiciro cya ‘Middle Income’ byinjiza igihugu mu rukorane rw’ibihugu bishya, n’uburenganzira bwo kujya mu bihugu byitwa ko ‘ biteye imbere mu bukungu’
Imbogamizi mu izamuka ry’ubukungu ku bihugu biri muri aka karere ka Africa y’uburasirazuba ariko ziracyagaragara. Icyambu cya Mombasa ni ururembo ku bintu (products) byinshi byinjira muri aka karere, ikibabaje ariko ni kimwe mu byambu bikora nabi ku Isi, icyambu bihanganye nacyo cyicyegereye (competitors) ni icya Dar es Salaam, cyo cyiri hasi y’icya Mombasa.
Uyu munsi, Mombasa ibyo ihererekanya (transacts) mu gihe cy’umwaka umwe bingana n’ibyo icyambu cya Singapore gikora mu cyumweru kimwe gusa. Ibyambu bikora neza bizamura uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa, bikagabanya ibiciro, bigakurura inganda, nyinshi ku isi ubu zishaka ahantu hashya, kuko Asia iri kugenda ihenda cyane. Ibi kandi bifasha cyane ibihugu bidakora ku nyanja cyane cyane nk’u Rwanda na Uganda kuboneraho nabyo. Iki rero kiracyari imbogamizi ariko yakemurwa uko iminsi igenda iza.
Ibikorwaremezo bihuza abantu n’amasoko nabyo birabangamira ibi bihugu gukomeza kwihuta kurushaho. Ikibazo gikomeye ni inzira ya ‘gari ya moshi’ (Railways). Umunsi ‘gari ya moshi’ izavana ibintu Kenya ikabigeza Kampala na Kigali mu buryo bwizewe kandi bwihuse, niwo munsi aka karere kazaba kari mu nzira yihuse igana mu kiciro cya Middle Income.
Ubwanditsi
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Barabeshya cyane kuko Kenya iri imbere cyane. Kandi Kenya nta mfashanyo igenderaho cyane nkurwanda. Ahubwo u rwanda rushobora gusubura inyuma ibi bitavugwa kubera amafaranga rukoresha amenshi ari imfashanyo nkigihugu kivuye mu ntambara
Uribeshya niba uvuga ko Kenya itabona imfashanyo! Gusa ibyo uvuga ko Kenya iri imbere y’u Rwanda nibyo kandi birumvikana! Ifite umutungo kamere mwinshi kurusha u Rwanda, ikora ku nyanja bituma ubucuruzi n’ubuhahirane byoroha, imaze imyaka irenga 30 nta ntambara zayishenye ngo ziyisubize inyuma nkuko byagendekeye u Rwanda mu myaka 18 ishize kandi banafite amashuri meza ta productive technics guhera mu myaka myinshi ishize.
Ibi ariko ntibyatuma twirengagiza intambwe u Rwanda rwateye aho rubasha ku mantaininga izamuka ry’ubukungu ku kigereranyo cya +6% ku mwakamu myaka igera ku icumi. Ikiza kibirimo nuko ubwo bukungu bugera no mu byaro. Ce qui n’est pas le cas du Kenya.
Icyo dukwiriye kwibaza ni ukumenya ko umuvuduko u Rwanda ruriho ruzababasha kuwugumaho mu myaka 15 iri imbere! Are we on solid basis or not? our progress is coming from a deep level or not?
Ahangaha ndemeranywa nawe rwose, niba u Rwanda ruzashobora ku maintenant uwo muvuduko. Ikindi wavuze gishimishije ni umuvuduko wavuze kuri Kenya, ariko unongereho ko burya abanyakenya banakora cyane kurenza abanyarwanda.
Buriya umwaku u Rwanda Rifute ni densite ya population, ressource natureles nkeya ndetse numubare mwinsi cyane wa ba agsumuni.
Wowe Ngombwa ibyo uvuga ntabyo uzi kuko Kenya ifite abaturage benshi biba ngombwa nk’uko izina ryawe ribivuga ko umutungo igihugu gifite ugabanywa umubare w’abaturage niyo mpamvu bigaragara ko idakize cyane n’ibindi bihugu niko bikorwa.Igihugu nka Mauricius na Cape Verde bituwe n’abantu bake kurusha South africa ariyo mpamvu bivugwa ko bikize kuyirusha,kandi SA igaragara nk’uburayi mu mugi yayo.
Hari byinshi ntakwirirwa njyaho impaka namwe kuko ibyo nzi birenze ibyo mwibwira ko muzi. Ikindi ni uko turi kumwe mu byo uvuga byo kugabanya butunzi abaturage. Ikiza rero ni uko umuntu yabona aho akusanyiriza information zose dufite kandi numva byafasha birenze mugutanga ubumenyi kuri ubwo bukungu. Kenya ifite umwitangirizwa uhagije kugirango u Rwanda ruzayishyikire birusaba imyaka nimyaka, keretse ruvumbuye amariba ya petrole ahagije. Urugero ni uko nabanyarwanda benshi bakunze guhahira Kenya kuko ibntu byaho bihendutse! Kuki kuko Kenya ituriye inyanja. Ikindi nabwiye mugenzi wawe ni secteur informel mugmba kubara itazwi neza umubare wayo kandi ikaba irenze inshuro 3 secteur formel. Ntakintu kigaragaza ko u Rwanda rushobora gukomeza kuzamuka mu bihe bizaza mu Gihe ntawugaragaza neza resources naturel u Rwanda rufite ziruha garanti
ibi nukuri birashoboka cyane, unarebye muri budget yacu, tumaze kurenza 50% avuye mumisoro no mubyo twohereza hanze. bikomeje gutya imisoro igatangwa neza, nishoramari rikazamuka, ntakabuza tuzaca kubanyakenya. Imana iduhe amahoro, ubundi byose birashoboka cyane
iyo mibare ya 50% wowe se ukayikurahe?
hari nikindi, tutakwirengagiza, kugira umubare munini w’abize,ubuhinzi bugatezwa imbere, inganda zitunganya ibiribwa zikabanyinshi kugirango zongere agaciro k’ibihingwa, no kwirinda ruswa, no guhanga imirimo mishya. ikindi nugushishikariza abanyarwanda kwisi yose, bagashora imari yabo mu rwanda. God bless Urwanda
Tujye duhakana ibihakanwa twemere ibikwiye kwemerwa.
Bwana Ngombwa uriya muzungu watangaje biriya ashinzwe gukurikirana uko ubukungu bw` u Rwanda buhagaze !! ako niko kazi yahawe mwe mwaba mukora iki mu mirimo?
Bivugwa ko ari Dr. mwe niba atari ibanga mwaba mufite iyihe titre academique ?
Utekereza ko mukazi ashinzwe atazi ko u Rwanda rufashwa ?
Utekereza ko atakoze ubushakashatsi akamenya igihe tuzaba tutagikeneye inkunga ya MDC .
Nanjye mbere sinemeraga ariko iyo abahanga barenze umwe bemeza ibintu ukabihakana kandi utagaragaza ubumenyi ufite n` ubushakashatsi wakoze kuri byo dear mbona utaba uri munzira nziza
Buriya koko gahunda ya girinka wowe ntacyo ikubwira ? NI UKURI KW`IMANA Njye nasanze uwayize ari umuhanga Peeeee!!!!
Buriya ntubona ko inzara adashobora kuzongera gutera mu Rwanda kubera ko duhinga ibintu bishobora guhunikwa ?? IBIGORI UZI KO BIBIKIKA NEZA KANDI BIKAMARA IGIHE !!!!
Uziko nasuye Bugesera ngasanga batagisuhuka ?
Uziko abagande basigaye baza guhahira ibyo kurya mu Rwanda cyane Ibigori?
SVP KORA UBUSHAKASHATSI NIBA BIKUNANIYE EMERA UBWO ABANDI BAKOZE NURANGIZA UBWEMERE !
Sindwanya ko u rwanda rudatera imbere kandi birananshimisha cyane. Gusa sinemeranywa nabo kukugereranya icyo gihugu na Kenya. Naho mbere yo kumbaza titre mfite, uzabanze umbarize Kagame urugejeje kuri iyo ntera umubare wamashuri na Titre afite. Nubunsubiza uzambaze nkubwire uwo ndiwe.
Ikibazo ni uko abazungu batwigisha bo bashaka ko twemera ibyabo gusa
Ahangaha ndagirango nsubize uyumuntu witwa Ngombwa, nibande kukantu avuga ka seceur informel, washaka amakuru kuko kuvuga ngo ntago izwi waba wibeshye cyane kdi njye ubwanjye nzi neza ko murwanda hakozwe ubushakashatsi nicyegeranyo kuri informal sectors, niba ushaka amakuru arenze wareba kuri website ya NISR, “www.statistics.gov.rw” (ushake icyitwa manpower survey report).
Utubwiye ku Rwanda ariko ntutubwiye kuri Kenya! Ikindi abari ku isonga ya statisique mu Rwanda hai abo nzimo na formation bakoze muri Economie (Dr en statistiques ou econometrics),Ahantu rero formation zabo zikunze kugirira akabazo ni uko zifite faiblesse muri analyse spatiale aprofondu ituma bashobora gu ceant les modeles ituma bashobora gukora sumulations ngo bagere kucyo umuntu yakwita differenciation et variographie spatiale. Ibyo bisaba identification ya facteurs hafi ya zose implique dans le changement qui a lieu dans les trois dimensions (Thematique, spatiale et temporele)Ibyo reo numva ko ari ngombwa cyane mukwiga biriya bihugu 3 byose kuko, variographie ir mu Rwanda iterwa nubwiyongere bw’abaturage, resource natureles ect.. ishobora ntihuye na gato nizirimo kubera mu bindi bihugu mwavuze.
Kenya rero yo ifite secter informel irenze cyane iyo utekereza kurwanda kandi yinziza amafaranga atagira ingano muri kiriya guhugu
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